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+---- Thread: Stochastic (/showthread.php?tid=22587)
Stochastic - Deer - 10-05-2014
In probability theory, a purely stochastic system is one whose state is non-deterministic so that the subsequent state of the system is determined probabilistically.
i was listening to a podcast the other day about this sort of thing...
In it, they talked about the idea that if someone wins the lottery, they are actually more likely to win again than someone who hasn't.
kind of the same idea (in a sense) as betting on a horse with high odds. If the horse wins, the odds lower.
I am cry.
my point: i'll never get a legendary.
Re: Stochastic - Sir Spacey - 10-05-2014
![[+]](/images/collapse_collapsed.png "[+]")
SpoilerRe: Stochastic - -Perception- - 10-05-2014
Pff, stochastics are a complete bitch..
How to increase the chances of getting a legendary?
Well, lets say your chance to loot a legendary in one round is 0,1% (the real value is probably smaller). So the logic solution would be to play more than just one round. Now, what are the odds that you dont loot a legendary in 1000 consecutive attempts?
The chance to loot nothing is 99,9%, hence, the chances of looting no legendary in 1000 runs is 0.999^1000 ~ 36.8%.
So basicly, doing 1000 runs gives you a loot chance of 63.2%.
Now a certain person who has just recently passed his 1000th run might ask where his loot is. Well, a loot chance of 0,01% per round already decreases the chances of getting one loot in 1000 runs to ~9,5%, and I am afraid that 0,01% is way closer to the actual value than 0,1%.*
Ultimately, the funny thing about stochastics is, that no matter what youve just calculated, in reality you ll always observe contradicting events, since even the slightest chance means an event is actually possible (like 6 wraiths spawning in a row.. :
). (*The values and calculations are heavily simplified to give you a rough idea of the concept and might contain a few mistakes.)
Re: Stochastic - Renji - 10-05-2014
Work it, silly Deer. Watch me loot a legendary after this message XD. Cheers sipping wine from my valsgarde helm.
Re: Stochastic - madjsoh - 10-05-2014
and then he loots a wormbane and all is well
Re: Stochastic - HasH_HeaD - 10-05-2014
(10-05-2014, 06:53 AM)madjosh link Wrote: and then he loots a wormbane and all is wellHe still would need to loot a legendary......
Re: Stochastic - Sir Spacey - 10-05-2014
(10-05-2014, 04:59 PM)HasH_HeaD link Wrote: [quote author=madjosh link=topic=26273.msg177800#msg177800 date=1399704801]He still would need to loot a legendary......
and then he loots a wormbane and all is well
[/quote]
Re: Stochastic - clickeverywhere - 10-05-2014
So this means I'm due for another legendary soon? Great!
Re: Stochastic - Terath - 10-05-2014
Eh, you get used to it. Not having a legendary is as fun as stabbing a mattress, pretending it's your luck.
Re: Stochastic - Suns - 11-05-2014
Think I got a legendary from this.
http://cloud-2.steampowered.com/ugc/796320489231805138/5FFDBBB9BF50DFBE9FA589C6D78E674570C75488/
Expect me to find another in a few weeks if this is true.