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#11
Im almost 100% how they pick legendaries is random. I'm not even sure I was told this as it was probably a public answer to a question years ago at this point.

I'm not sure if there is a waiting period before they go back into the pool of legendaries to get picked again. I don't think any legendary has happened  2 months in a row?


Why do you think Zephyr and others were not up for an upgrade for the longest time if it's not randomly picked? I would think Zephyr is one of the most wanted upgrades yet it took a year?
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#12
(01-01-2020, 02:51 PM)Woody Wrote: Im almost 100% how they pick legendaries is random. I'm not even sure I was told this as it was probably a public answer to a question years ago at this point.

I'm not sure if there is a waiting period before they go back into the pool of legendaries to get picked again. I don't think any legendary has happened  2 months in a row?

I observed approximate cycles when planning upgrades.

(01-01-2020, 02:51 PM)Woody Wrote: Why do you think Zephyr and others were not up for an upgrade for the longest time if it's not randomly picked? I would think Zephyr is one of the most wanted upgrades yet it took a year?

Because it's manually done and was forgotten. The question was mostly "Is there a possibility that you forgot that an instance of this item is in game now? And if so, could you please make it available this month?"
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#13
Then here are the questions 

What do you think about the system we have for upgrades?
What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
What is the reason to have it random when it could just be timed or something else? 
At minimum, the wait to be able to craft anything should not be any more than half a year? (yes or no)

Just did a search to see if I could see for how long people have waited just for the Zephyr. Got a bonus Alia post.  


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#14
(01-01-2020, 03:16 PM)Woody Wrote: Then here are the questions 

What do you think about the system we have for upgrades?
What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
What is the reason to have it random when it could just be timed or something else? 
At minimum, the wait to be able to craft anything should not be any more than half a year? (yes or no)

Just did a search to see if I could see for how long people have waited just for the Zephyr. Got a bonus Alia post.

Sigh. Statistics explain populations and not every individual. The fact that you only found 1 outlier (8 months isn't an outlier when the mean time elapsed between upgrades was 7.92 months in the last two rounds of upgrades, the median was 7 months, and the mode is 7 months) in 24 months with about 15 items available each month (i.e. 1/360 or 0.278% of the time) demonstrates this, unless you think 0.278% dictates the other 99.721%. For someone as invested in the game as you, you should have noticed this pattern, as well as the fact that three items that were not previously available for upgrade are suddenly available this month, which seems to support the idea that they were forgotten. I saw the cycles pretty immediately when planning upgrades, but we can add this instance to the "PCK noticed something Woody didn't" pile.

Time between upgrades for December 2019 recipes:
Time between upgrades for January 2020 recipes:
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#15
Sigh. I do not disagree on anything you said... I want you to answer easy questions vs giving me a summary no one asked for.

1Q) What do you think about the system we have for upgrades?
1You) You could say fine here Idk I'm not you.
1Me) For me personally I don't really care. Got all the things I want just about and it got to the point long ago I am wanting stuff I don't even use.

2Q) What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
2You) You could say nothing here Idk I'm not you.
2me) I think the [wait] is just preventing inevitable most of the time. If you work hard enough to get that gold and the mats ready most of the time people don't turn back on a costly decision like that.

3Q) What is the reason to have it random when it could just be timed or something else?
3You) You could say you are fine with [random] but make rules so it can take control of the outliers [Like Zephyr].
3Me) I see little reasons why it should be random when an order or at least a list of what's coming next. This would be more pleasing to crafters or at least me. Being able to look into the future and "I've got 3 months to get all the items ready" would have been less stress on me as on the 1st year of upgrades I craft just about all 12 rounds and a lot of times more than once. 

I think I did have 1 round off and to see that coming would have been great and the same could be said when I did craft 3 things in 1 round.

The point is it wouldn't be that hard to set up all the future rounds for 2020 and post them so people can see. If anything then people can comment on it and say "Why do I need to wait almost a year".

4Q) At a minimum, the wait to be able to craft anything should not be any more than half a year? (yes or no)
4You) Yes?
4Me) Maybe even less than half a year. To the point, you don't need to wait to be able to craft it. If you have stuff ready I see no reason why you should need to wait any longer.
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#16
(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote: Sigh. I do not disagree on anything you said... I want you to answer easy questions vs giving me a summary no one asked for.

Liar! Then how did you not figure out the answer to your own question:

(01-01-2020, 02:51 PM)Woody Wrote: Why do you think Zephyr and others were not up for an upgrade for the longest time if it's not randomly picked? I would think Zephyr is one of the most wanted upgrades yet it took a year?

(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote:

Your dumb questions seemed like a corollary to the false premise that a year long wait for an upgrade is not an outlier; or that you are now acknowledging it's an outlier, but using an outlier to show that it's "luck" when it's not. But anyway:

1Q) What do you think about the system we have for upgrades?
1You) It's fine. I would have automated both the scheduling and the availability on the website with something like Ansible.

2Q) What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
2You) This requires evaluation, maybe via survey or polling.

3Q) What is the reason to have it random when it could just be timed or something else?
3You) It hasn't been established that it's random. And even after seeing the stats on the last two sets of upgrade recipes, do you still think that?

4Q) At a minimum, the wait to be able to craft anything should not be any more than half a year? (yes or no)
4You) Just do the math, given that we know the number of legendaries in game and that it seems 15 per month will be available. Number of legendaries / desired number of recipes per month. If that's greater than 6 months (and it seems to be), then waiting more than half a year is fine.
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#17
(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: Liar! Then how did you not figure out the answer to your own question:

Read the 1st part of what you just quoted... I'm asking you a question.

(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote: Why do you think...

(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote: I do not disagree on anything you said...


Nice to see you think I'm a liar when I did what? Ask for your opinion. Nice? 




(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: Your dumb questions seemed like a corollary to the false premise that a year long wait for an upgrade is not an outlier; or that you are now acknowledging it's an outlier, but using an outlier to show that it's "luck" when it's not. But anyway:

No, I'm asking why should I need to wait and why has nothing changed when so many people say the same things.

(30-11-2019, 05:48 PM)Malong Wrote: ETA on next set, and any chance of Leviathan's Helmet and Heavy Steel Greaves? It took two months for Glory to be available, and it's been five six months on Leviathan's Helmet.




(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 2Q) What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
2You) This requires evaluation, maybe via survey or polling.

I'm here for an answer. You can make an educated guess if need be. I'm taking a guess needing to wait for the magical item picker to hit you item would be 1 more reason to go afk for some people. Half a year is a long time to wait for anything but to think you are waiting for no apparent reason or justification. Nice system.  

I have doubts but It would not surprise me if some people go afg in waiting for some upgrades. Hell, my upgraded Pride I just did is the reason why I'm playing more than I would. 

You have a lot of upgrades like myself so in what why did this benefit you or hinder you? For me, I can't see in any way this wait helped. 

I guess you may have retention but that's pretty devious for the devs to do.

(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 3You) It hasn't been established that it's random. And even after seeing the stats on the last two sets of upgrade recipes, do you still think that?

I'll reword that to be cleaner then. Why does it need to be random that's the question just about... And my answer is it doesn't need to be. 

Give me a reason why it should be random? I can think of a few reasons why random would be a good idea hence why I said: "I see little reasons why it should be random".

(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 4You) Just do the math, given that we know the number of legendaries in game and that it seems 15 per month will be available. Number of legendaries / desired number of recipes per month. If that's greater than 6 months (and it seems to be), then waiting more than half a year is fine.

I'll reword this question as it seems your mind is fixated on the system we have atm.

When you got the Leviathan's Helmet when did you want to upgrade it?
Do you see any reason why you should need to wait [x] amount of time vs you immediately upgrading it?
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#18
(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote:
(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: Liar! Then how did you not figure out the answer to your own question:

Read the 1st part of what you just quoted... I'm asking you a question.

(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote: Why do you think...

(01-01-2020, 04:18 PM)Woody Wrote: I do not disagree on anything you said...

Nice to see you think I'm a liar when I did what? Ask for your opinion. Nice? 

You don't disagree AFTER I spoonfed it to you with supporting evidence. BEFORE that, you honestly thought a year was not out of the ordinary (to the tune of far less than 1%, by the way).

And this isn't the first time something has been explained to you and then you try to claim you understood all along. If you really understood, you wouldn't have typed that question. You didn't notice this was out of the ordinary. Stop lying.

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote: No, I'm asking why should I need to wait and why has nothing changed when so many people say the same things.

Because that's literally the (elementary school level) math. From the past two cycles, 7.92 months is the expected value. Unless any of the "many people" have suggested more recipes per month (which I highly doubt), don't expect this to change. You want something to happen without any concrete resolution and won't even take five minutes of thought to understand that this is expected.

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote:
(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 2Q) What does this wait do to people and how does it benefit Ni or hinder it?
2You) This requires evaluation, maybe via survey or polling.

I'm here for an answer. You can make an educated guess if need be. I'm taking a guess needing to wait for the magical item picker to hit you item would be 1 more reason to go afk for some people. Half a year is a long time to wait for anything but to think you are waiting for no apparent reason or justification. Nice system.  

You want me to tell you how people feel without asking a good sample size of the community about how they feel. Let's file this in the "Woody's Great Ideas" folder.

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote: I have doubts but It would not surprise me if some people go afg in waiting for some upgrades. Hell, my upgraded Pride I just did is the reason why I'm playing more than I would. 

Do you know what would help evaluate if players don't play when their upgrades aren't available, and how much of the community is comprised of this cohort? A survey or poll!

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote: You have a lot of upgrades like myself so in what why did this benefit you or hinder you? For me, I can't see in any way this wait helped. 

I don't mind it, and that's the math. Or I would have suggested more recipes per month long ago.

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote:
(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 3You) It hasn't been established that it's random. And even after seeing the stats on the last two sets of upgrade recipes, do you still think that?

I'll reword that to be cleaner then. Why does it need to be random that's the question just about... And my answer is it doesn't need to be. 

Give me a reason why it should be random? I can think of a few reasons why random would be a good idea hence why I said: "I see little reasons why it should be random".

(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 3You) It hasn't been established that it's random. And even after seeing the stats on the last two sets of upgrade recipes, do you still think [it's random]?

(01-01-2020, 05:21 PM)Woody Wrote:
(01-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Malong Wrote: 4You) Just do the math, given that we know the number of legendaries in game and that it seems 15 per month will be available. Number of legendaries / desired number of recipes per month. If that's greater than 6 months (and it seems to be), then waiting more than half a year is fine.

I'll reword this question as it seems your mind is fixated on the system we have atm.

When you got the Leviathan's Helmet when did you want to upgrade it?
Do you see any reason why you should need to wait [x] amount of time vs you immediately upgrading it?

I fully expected to wait at least two months. When it became five months, I figured it was forgotten that there was one in game. But I waited over a year for many other items, choosing not to upgrade them when they were first available. Just do the math. You are asking for something that is mathematically impossible with 15 recipes available every month.
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#19
You two are really them most saddest pieces of dirt I have ever seen in my life so far, congratulations.
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#20
+1
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