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I decided that I would most likely post up something to help people look at the prices of green mats in order to make the newer and older players notice the market for items and etc. I am going to update the prices of Green Materials weekly to maintain a background on these prices. If you could help, it would be a nice gesture to me. Please post the Materials that you want tracked. These must be items that the community needs, not just 1 item or it would be a waste of time.
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I was thinking about doing exactly the same thing, so you can count me in. There are however several problems and i'd like to ask how do you want to cope with them:
1. People trade larger quantities of mats outside of the AH and they usually pay less for them. It's impossible to know every detail of such deals.
2. When someone puts green mats on AH for a really good price people buy them in matter of minutes, so without access to an archive there is no way to tell how many and for how much were actually bought that day.
3. Some items are so overpriced on AH that no one will buy them and auction is guaranteed to fail. But if you'd use these prices to calculate median it would be higher than it actually should be, thus the statistics would be useless.
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I have had this idea to create a forecasting thread for every green material for more than a year, but to be honest, I was too lazy to deal with it. Hence it requires a lot of time and effort unlike the short paragraph like you have written. First of all,what kind of time series do you want to create for the data? Do you want to do it to be daily, weekly or monthly? Regardless of the span of time, do you have some sort of data in a certain set of times series on different levels of servers to start with? If not, what are you going to start with? Do you personally have a set of gathered data(with dates, server mode, wave number, which bot it dropped from, etc.)? Because I do. So we can say that you are pretty much will be making an analysis of the current green drop rate. Furthermore, did you ask the questions if, for example, what is the drop rate of a Small Lump of Lead? Is it the same on every Hard/Ragnarok server? Does each of the bots that drops Lead have the same percentage of the chance dropping? Regardless of which bot it drops from, does each of the servers have the same percentage of the chance of acquiring the Small Lump of Lead? Did you play enough of each specific servers to create an assumption of your own? And trust me, I can ask you at least a dozen more questions like this.
Anyway, all I can say is that you need more then a paragraph asking people what they have dropped if you really want to do this. For example, you need to kite, on all server modes(Normal, Hard, and Ragnorak) in most of the servers to have an idea of what and how much that "X" material drops. Also, not even mentioning other server modes, you need to constantly be online and have a specific small community of your own to at least would allow you too create a sample size of your own. Furthermore, due to the fact of the circulation of the rate of green drops changing, you need to be regularly doing ragnarok runs as well as.
What you're planning is not this, http://forum.nordinvasion.com/index.php?...724.0.html, or this http://forum.nordinvasion.com/index.php?...053.0.html. Just because you see too many Lumps on the AH on a certain day does not mean that there is an increase in the drop of lumps. I can put on a dozen if I want t right now. Does that mean the drop rate % of Lumps increased? If so, How do you know that I haven't been gathering Lumps and decided to sell them out of thin air? To be honest, I personally would not post specifically what I have drops that I have had in "X" amount of runs (or kiting) that I have did just because you have asked for it. You're mentioning about graphs, well, where are they? Therefore, I am not even going to poke your ability to use the certain tools for the certain analysis that is need to be done here.
Finally, the prices constantly change. You can't just post that a Lump is 90k or whatever? How do you know I'm not selling it for 60k or 200k? Are you going to create an average for that specific material? Therefore, with the facts mentioned above, you need to be able to cross-reference what you obtain, how much does that person value it, and what the price is in the NI Market. As far as I can go, I can say that an Eagle Feather is 30k and I'm stubborn about the price? Can you say that it's not 30k? If you're able to answer this question with absolute objectiveness I'd say go for it.
If you are not planning on dealing with these facts, I would advise you to not even wasting your time or anyone elses. Because this will only misguide people.
Mythik
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It's a graph of fluctuating prices of materials, not drop rates or whom they drop from 
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(24-01-2014, 12:10 PM)Mythik link Wrote: I have had this idea to create a forecasting thread for every green material for more than a year, but to be honest, I was too lazy to deal with it. Hence it requires a lot of time and effort unlike the short paragraph like you have written. First of all,what kind of time series do you want to create for the data? Do you want to do it to be daily, weekly or monthly? Regardless of the span of time, do you have some sort of data in a certain set of times series on different levels of servers to start with? If not, what are you going to start with? Do you personally have a set of gathered data(with dates, server mode, wave number, which bot it dropped from, etc.)? Because I do. So we can say that you are pretty much will be making an analysis of the current green drop rate. Furthermore, did you ask the questions if, for example, what is the drop rate of a Small Lump of Lead? Is it the same on every Hard/Ragnarok server? Does each of the bots that drops Lead have the same percentage of the chance dropping? Regardless of which bot it drops from, does each of the servers have the same percentage of the chance of acquiring the Small Lump of Lead? Did you play enough of each specific servers to create an assumption of your own? And trust me, I can ask you at least a dozen more questions like this.
Anyway, all I can say is that you need more then a paragraph asking people what they have dropped if you really want to do this. For example, you need to kite, on all server modes(Normal, Hard, and Ragnorak) in most of the servers to have an idea of what and how much that "X" material drops. Also, not even mentioning other server modes, you need to constantly be online and have a specific small community of your own to at least would allow you too create a sample size of your own. Furthermore, due to the fact of the circulation of the rate of green drops changing, you need to be regularly doing ragnarok runs as well as.
What you're planning is not this, http://forum.nordinvasion.com/index.php?...724.0.html, or this http://forum.nordinvasion.com/index.php?...053.0.html. Just because you see too many Lumps on the AH on a certain day does not mean that there is an increase in the drop of lumps. I can put on a dozen if I want t right now. Does that mean the drop rate % of Lumps increased? If so, How do you know that I haven't been gathering Lumps and decided to sell them out of thin air? To be honest, I personally would not post specifically what I have drops that I have had in "X" amount of runs (or kiting) that I have did just because you have asked for it. You're mentioning about graphs, well, where are they? Therefore, I am not even going to poke your ability to use the certain tools for the certain analysis that is need to be done here.
Finally, the prices constantly change. You can't just post that a Lump is 90k or whatever? How do you know I'm not selling it for 60k or 200k? Are you going to create an average for that specific material? Therefore, with the facts mentioned above, you need to be able to cross-reference what you obtain, how much does that person value it, and what the price is in the NI Market. As far as I can go, I can say that an Eagle Feather is 30k and I'm stubborn about the price? Can you say that it's not 30k? If you're able to answer this question with absolute objectiveness I'd say go for it.
If you are not planning on dealing with these facts, I would advise you to not even wasting your time or anyone elses. Because this will only misguide people.
Mythik
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I was never here, you saw nothing...
Motivational tip: When you wake up in the morning, look in the mirror and say confidently, "That's a nice head you have on your shoulders."
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(24-01-2014, 03:35 PM)Renji link Wrote: It's a graph of fluctuating prices of materials, not drop rates or whom they drop from
I know. But from what and how much it drops is the main factor of the fluctuating prices.
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(24-01-2014, 04:17 PM)Mythik link Wrote: I know. But from what and how much it drops is the main factor of the fluctuating prices. Not really, demand for certain materials drives prices up or down, if supply and demand was static the whole time (drop rates too) you wouldn't see any significant price fluctuations.
Anyway, how are you planning to get your data? Do you have any knowledge of statistics?
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