10-05-2014, 05:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-05-2014, 05:16 AM by -Perception-.)
Pff, stochastics are a complete bitch..
How to increase the chances of getting a legendary?
Well, lets say your chance to loot a legendary in one round is 0,1% (the real value is probably smaller). So the logic solution would be to play more than just one round. Now, what are the odds that you dont loot a legendary in 1000 consecutive attempts?
The chance to loot nothing is 99,9%, hence, the chances of looting no legendary in 1000 runs is 0.999^1000 ~ 36.8%.
So basicly, doing 1000 runs gives you a loot chance of 63.2%.
Now a certain person who has just recently passed his 1000th run might ask where his loot is. Well, a loot chance of 0,01% per round already decreases the chances of getting one loot in 1000 runs to ~9,5%, and I am afraid that 0,01% is way closer to the actual value than 0,1%.*
Ultimately, the funny thing about stochastics is, that no matter what youve just calculated, in reality you ll always observe contradicting events, since even the slightest chance means an event is actually possible (like 6 wraiths spawning in a row.. :
).
(*The values and calculations are heavily simplified to give you a rough idea of the concept and might contain a few mistakes.)
How to increase the chances of getting a legendary?
Well, lets say your chance to loot a legendary in one round is 0,1% (the real value is probably smaller). So the logic solution would be to play more than just one round. Now, what are the odds that you dont loot a legendary in 1000 consecutive attempts?
The chance to loot nothing is 99,9%, hence, the chances of looting no legendary in 1000 runs is 0.999^1000 ~ 36.8%.
So basicly, doing 1000 runs gives you a loot chance of 63.2%.
Now a certain person who has just recently passed his 1000th run might ask where his loot is. Well, a loot chance of 0,01% per round already decreases the chances of getting one loot in 1000 runs to ~9,5%, and I am afraid that 0,01% is way closer to the actual value than 0,1%.*
Ultimately, the funny thing about stochastics is, that no matter what youve just calculated, in reality you ll always observe contradicting events, since even the slightest chance means an event is actually possible (like 6 wraiths spawning in a row.. :
). (*The values and calculations are heavily simplified to give you a rough idea of the concept and might contain a few mistakes.)