Make toming safe after a prayer

[Malong]

This pic is from March 9th, 2018 given it shows data rather than "guessing".  This was probably the highest points in Ni in terms of player numbers. We had a lot of looting happing at the same time. Is the player numbers just from the looting or is it just from the updates? It's both and other stuff...

Looting is in infrequent but when it happens a lot by chance or by a posable change in drop rate people want to play more as they think they have a better chance. Basically, once the ball gets rolling it gets faster and faster till eventually flattens out from a case of boredom.

What I suggest is updates spike player numbers in turn pushing the "luck" up. The luck is superficial its just a matter of how many people are rolling the dice unless the drop rate really did change.  

Spoiler

Quest Overhaul - Feb 16th
1.9.0 - March 1st
1.9.1 - March 2nd
1.9.2 - March 17th

Pic from here - March 9th, 2018

So you want to demonstrate:

Whenever an update is put out that affects stats alongside no other difference to any mechanics such as drop rate, the player activity increases.
Whenever an update is put out that affects maps alongside no other difference to any mechanics such as drop rate, the player activity increases.
Whenever an update to what upgrades are available alongside no other difference to any mechanics such as drop rate, the player activity increases.
Whenever devs hold special events alongside no other difference to any mechanics such as drop rate, the player activity increases.

and then you pick a time period when multiple legendaries were dropping a day on average (78 reported in the legendary item thread in a course of a month). Good job.

Looting is in infrequent but when it happens a lot by chance or by a posable change in drop rate people want to play more as they think they have a better chance. Basically, once the ball gets rolling it gets faster and faster till eventually flattens out from a case of boredom.

Or people stop playing when legendaries stop dropping as frequently. This also ignores the fact that this was after the material drop rate overhaul.

What I suggest is updates spike player numbers in turn pushing the "luck" up. The luck is superficial its just a matter of how many people are rolling the dice unless the drop rate really did change.  

But as players increase linearly, loot chance does not increase linearly with it. If a chance to "win" a roll is 1/n, then taking two rolls and winning either of them one is not 2/n, but rather [1 - ((n-1)/n)^2]. The population definitely "push[ed] the 'luck' up" far more than it should have from population increase alone.

The last stats update was for me July 13th.

Ok, using the item thread we can get an idea of how many runs are being done. Not everyone uses it so it's not perfect but it will give us a basic idea.

There isn't necessarily a link between number of drops and games being played. And secondly, more games being played in a day also doesn't necessarily imply more players are playing unless they're concurrent, which hasn't been established. This is not an adequate substitute for number of active players online and their duration from before and after.

The currently still ongoing halloween event is different in what way to normal gameplay? That's partly why I think I and others have not played Ni in about a week. It's not that much rewarding over normal modes and its not changeling vs rag... It's just a skin with no real reason for players to do more than once. I didn't have time to do the halloween event last year but no wonder people aren't jumping on it it's just the same thing no?

I'm sure if we looked at double XP week or even the upcoming Xmas event and did this to them they will outperform this halloween in terms of people playing and in turn looting.   

For me, it's because it's the same gameplay without better rewards.

This was not focused on why you are the only one left more why others left. It's no secret the DB events were the most successful or at least the way they did them. 

Edited before you replied.

Yes, you need to win some amount of your games for you to want to play those games. People argue about a % but I think it matters in what game you play. For any game, I would say you need to win at a minimum of 30% of the time to keep playing. For Ni how much is that minimum? More importantly what qualifies a win? I think most people say doing w15 is the win given its one of the only end goals in Ni. 

If I wanted to win all the time I would play normal or easy no? Why do you want to play rag when we don't need to? Normal and hard have stuff we can loot. Its all about the Risk/Reward Ratio. Rag has the best xp and the best gold but the loot is subjective in its cost. The only objective thing we can say without seeing drop rates is the loot on rag is harder to get. This is not even a factour people really think about anymore when pricing stuff because the market is flooded with duplicates and rag has become so easy it's not even worth saying.

What?

I can't find a study I like on risk/reward or other topics like it but im sure you could just look at the wiki if you really wanted to?

In other words, you pulled it out of your ass.

Risk and Reward is fun otherwise we would be happy to play on normal and never move away from it once we got to a certain point. Yea, it's fun to go on normal to kite once every so often with a full set of upgraded gear but I don't see this as fun or even entertaining most of the time... Why would I?

People play the highest mode you can comfortably beat unless they are actively looking for something from another mode.